Bitcoin Metric Predicted Every Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin's price is back above $70,000, but questions remain about whether the asset has established its cycle low. A key bitcoin metric has predicted every cycle bottom, and its current reading is crucial for the next outlook.

Understanding the Metric

The metric in question is the long-term holder supply in loss, which tracks the percentage of long-term investors' holdings that are underwater at current prices. This metric has a perfect record of predicting cycle bottoms, with significant numbers of long-term holders falling into losses near the end of bear markets.

Historical Data

• In 2015, 53% of long-term holder supply was in loss.
• In 2018, 45% of long-term holdings were in loss.
• In 2022, the figure reached around 44%.

Current Reading and Implications

The current long-term holder supply in loss reading sits at approximately 29%, which is climbing. This figure confirms that conditions are deteriorating, with a large share of holders that would move into loss if prices decline further. However, the reading is still well short of the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as genuine cycle floors.

Expert Insights

According to crypto analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that the Bitcoin price is not at the bottom yet but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form. The Bitcoin price is currently trading at $71,127, down by 1.1% in the past 24 hours.

Key Takeaways

• The long-term holder supply in loss metric has predicted every cycle bottom.
• The current reading of 29% is still short of the 44% to 53% range that indicates a cycle floor.
• Bitcoin's price is not at the bottom yet, but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form.
• The broader crypto market sentiment is currently lacking any clear bullish momentum.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the long-term holder supply in loss metric?

The long-term holder supply in loss metric tracks the percentage of long-term investors' holdings that are underwater at current prices.

How has the metric performed in the past?

The metric has a perfect record of predicting cycle bottoms, with significant numbers of long-term holders falling into losses near the end of bear markets.